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Threats and Political Instability in Authoritarian Regimes: A Dynamic Theoretical Analysis

Contrary to research on the tradeoff between competence and loyalty, the model in this paper shows that when threats to an authoritarian regime are existential and purges are an option, the dictator will always prefer to employ a competent lieutenant. However, in accordance with the existing literature, credible institutions to ensure the welfare of ousted officials do, indeed, reduce the chance of internal conflict.